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Throughout the summer ahead of every NFL season, you can bet on teams to go over or under their preseason win total. These win totals are updated every week during the season to allow bettors to keep betting throughout the season. Obviously, the win totals move up or down week to week based on the results and how each team looks on the field.

With a third of the season now in the books, which teams have seen the biggest movement from their preseason win total to their current total? Which teams are surpassing expectations and which teams are falling way short?

Eagles, Broncos are on opposite ends of the spectrum

Two teams have seen their win totals move four wins from their preseason number, and they are on opposite ends of the spectrum.

The Philadelphia Eagles entered the season with their win total set at 9.5 wins. Oddsmakers were expecting them to be good, but I don’t think anyone expected a 6-0 start. The Eagles are on a bye week this week, but when they return, they have the Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Washington Commanders on the schedule. Not only is 9-0 extremely possible, you kind of have to expect it at this point.

Currently at BetMGM, the Eagles’ win total for this season is set at over/under 13.5 wins. That’s tied for the highest win total in the league with the Buffalo Bills. The four-win increase from the preseason projection is the largest in the league.

If you’re really feeling crazy, the Eagles are 14-to-1 to go 17-0 in the regular season.

On the other end of the spectrum are the Denver Broncos. Most fans across the league would consider them the biggest disappointment in football, and oddsmakers seem to agree.

Expectations were high for the Broncos entering the season after they acquired Russell Wilson. In the last two seasons, Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady won the Super Bowl in their first season with new teams. Some people thought that was a realistic possibility for the Broncos. Their preseason win total was set at 10.5 wins, which was one of the higher marks in the league.

However, through six weeks, the Broncos are 2-4. They’ve lost two games in the favorite role against the Seattle Seahawks and Indianapolis Colts. Even their wins against the Houston Texans and San Francisco 49ers were ugly. NFL fans are begging for networks to flex them out of prime time. As a result, the Broncos’ current win total at BetMGM is set at just 6.5 wins. They are -650 favorites to miss the playoffs.

Russell Wilson looks like a shell of the quarterback he used to be. Geno Smith in Seattle is outplaying him, which is just a terrible optic when you consider the narratives in recent seasons. Wilson has just five touchdown passes in six games, and he isn’t being helped much by first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who has appeared to be in over his head numerous times already this season.

The betting market isn’t keen on the Broncos turning things around, and based on what we’ve seen, you can’t blame them. Nevertheless, 6.5 wins is an extremely low number and puts them on par with teams like Washington and the Detroit Lions. How the mighty have fallen.

INGLEWOOD , CA - OCTOBER 17: Russell Wilson (3) of the Denver Broncos walks off the field after the fourth quarter of the Los Angeles Chargers 19-16 overtime win at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California on Monday, October 17, 2022. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos are the biggest disappointment in the NFL. (AAron Ontiveroz/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

The positive surprises

While no other team has seen its win total rise by four wins like the Eagles, there are a few teams that oddsmakers are admitting they might have been a little too low on.

Entering the season, the Atlanta Falcons had a projected win total of 4.5 wins. That mark was tied for lowest in the league alongside the Houston Texans. Through six weeks, the Falcons are 3-3 and are tied with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for the best record in the NFC South, just like we all expected. They’re a perfect 6-0 against the spread.

Currently at BetMGM, the Falcons’ win total is set at over/under 7.5 wins. That win total puts them on par with teams like Cleveland and Las Vegas and ahead of the aforementioned Broncos. The three-win increase is the second largest in the league.

The following teams have seen their win totals rise two wins after surprising starts:

In addition to those four teams, the win total for the Kansas City Chiefs is up to 11.5 wins after opening at 10.5. The Miami Dolphins and Seattle Seahawks win totals are also up one win. The Dolphins are currently at over/under 9.5 wins and the Seahawks are at 6.5 wins.

The disappointing teams

The Broncos lead the way in terms of teams that have disappointed this season. However, they are far from alone.

Four teams have seen their preseason win totals drop by two wins after the first six weeks of the season. For Arizona, things have look disjointed all season. Their win total is now at 6.5 wins after opening at 8.5. In Carolina, the Baker Mayfield experiment hasn’t worked at all and their win total is down to just 4.5 wins after closing at 6.5 before the start of the season. Mike Tomlin might be on the way to his first losing season as the Steelers’ win total is down to 5.5 wins after opening at 7.5. Additionally, the Saints aren’t nearly as good as some expected. Their win total sits at 6.5 wins after opening at 8.5.

Additionally, 10 teams have seen their win totals drop by one win from the preseason number:

Sticking with their original numbers

Oddsmakers are still pretty good at what they do, so there are eight teams that have the same projected win total after six weeks. They are sticking with their original number for these teams:

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