This Saturday slate is game packed with playoff baseball, as all four division series will be in action today.
To celebrate potentially the last time we see a slate like this, I’ve found three player props to make today’s action even more profitable. Let’s find out who we’re betting on and how we’re betting on them.
Our Action Labs Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting recommendations in my discussions below.
Lance McCullers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-155)
|Astros vs. Mariners|
|First Pitch||4:07 pm ET|
It is great to see Lance McCullers Jr. back on the mound. He returned in August and looked tremendous in eight starts this season. He did not allow more than three earned runs in any of his outings, and a big reason why was his ability to generate strikeouts.
From what we have seen from McCullers this season, this total is far too low, as he’s exceeded it in seven of his eight starts. However, the historical data is in his favor as well. In his last 38 starts, he has eclipsed this total 78.9 percent of the time. That gives us -375 implied odds that he will do so again.
That is before you factor in the matchup. Being divisional rivals, McCullers has seen the Mariners before — although not this season — which will only help him. He has compiled 98 at-bats against this lineup and holds a 30.1 percent strikeout rate.
If we get five innings from McCullers, he should crush this number.
Pick: Over 4.5 strikeouts
Action Labs Grade: 8
Triston McKenzie Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120)
|Yankees vs. Guardians|
|First Pitch||7:37 pm ET|
Triston McKenzie has been spectacular since July, and the Yankees were the first victim of his hot stretch on the third of July. McKenzie threw seven shutout innings and allowed just one hit while striking out seven batters.
It would be shocking if he repeats that performance here tonight.
McKenzie’s dominant stretch has him long overdue for regression, however, as his FIP and xERA are well above his season ERA. He is pointing downward because of the amount of hard contact he has surrendered, and this is not the lineup that you want squaring up the baseball.
We know the Yankees can do damage, and they should get back on track tonight offensively, which will shorten McKenzie’s outing and put a cap on the number of strikeouts he’s able to record.
Pick: Under 5.5 strikeouts
Action Labs Grade: 7
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
|Dodgers vs. Padres|
|First Pitch||9:37 pm ET|
While Joe Musgrove got a ton of praise for his performance against the Mets in the Wild Card Round, he is due to regress.
Musgrove’s FIP and xERA are significantly higher than his season ERA. On top of that, the Dodgers are one of the few teams that put runs up against him, as they totaled seven earned runs in 17 innings this season. One man that was right in the middle of the run production was Freddie Freeman.
Freeman has hit Musgrove very well throughout his career, as the two have matched up 21 times. Thus far, Freeman is hitting .381 with two extra base hits. However, he has not struck out much, and his quality of contact over the 18 balls put in play. His xBA is .364, and his xSLG is .528.
With Musgrove due to get hit around a bit, I like Freeman’s chances of putting one in the gap or even collecting multiple hits tonight.
Pick: Over 1.5 total bases
Action Labs Grade: 8
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