We’re offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren’t having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can’t afford to lose.
Following the death of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II, all English soccer was postponed last weekend. This weekend, we only have seven games spread out across three days due to limitations within the police force covering the various activities surrounding the Royal funeral and local rail strikes. We’re still going to take a look at the remaining fixtures but with a mind that some teams will have gone two weeks without a game.
We’ve been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller too. We’re still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content, on top of the weekly preview and betting content. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @Mark_Kieffer, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions or need advice on any of this.
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2022-23 EPL Betting Picks
- Match results: 29-31
- Total picks: 25-29-5
- Parlays: 3-8
- ROI: 97.57% (-1.07 units)
Friday, September 16th, 2022
Southampton (+276) at Aston Villa (+108) – 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2 – 1 Southampton
Villa finds themselves just outside the relegation zone but that’s down to losing all three away games. They have four points at home which includes an impressive draw against Manchester City last time out (their only point in their last four games).
Southampton has one away win to their name this season, a 2-1 victory against bottom-of-the-table Leicester City. They lost 1-0 at Wolves two weeks ago and are yet to keep a clean sheet, conceding ten goals in six games so far.
Betting pick: Both teams to score & total goals – Yes & over 2.5 (+124) 1 unit
Both teams are without a clean sheet this season and both sides have conceded ten goals in their six games. I don’t normally like to bank on goals solely due to the two team’s defensive issues but Villa also scored 29 goals at home last season (ninth most) while Southampton’s 43 away goals conceded were a league-high.
Player to watch: Ollie Watkins
Watkins scored in this fixture last season but only has one goal so far this season in six games (five starts). He also has two assists and with Villa generally playing two up front at home, he will fancy adding to both of those tallies this week.
Fulham (+158) at Nottingham Forest (+192) – 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 – 1 Fulham
Forest have had two weeks to mule over their 3-2 loss at home to Bournemouth in their last game, a match in which they lead 2-0 at half-time. It was the first time they had managed to score twice in a game this season but with nine goals conceded in their last two games, they will also need to tighten things up defensively.
Fulham finds themselves in the top half of the table after an impressive start to the season that has seen them face Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham. The latter two are the only sides to have beaten them. But they have just one point away from home and will need to improve on the road if they are to maintain their league position throughout the season.
Betting pick: Both teams to score – Yes (-130) 1.5 units
Although Forest only have four goals this season, three have come at home and they had ample chances to score against Tottenham in their 2-0 defeat. Fulham’s only clean sheet came against the league’s lowest scorers (Wolves) and in Aleksandar Mitrovic, they have a striker in great goal-scoring form.
Player to watch: Neco Williams
The Forest wing-back leads the team in shot-creating actions (18) and shots (13) while he also takes corners and free-kicks in attacking areas. He has more routes to fantasy points than anyone else in this game.
Saturday, September 17th, 2022
Manchester City (-285) at Wolves (+846) – 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Wolves 0 – 2 Manchester City
It’s a familiar story for Wolves. Solid defensively (conceding just four goals in three games), but finding it hard to score themselves, with just three goals scored in their six games. Since losing 2-1 in their opening game of the season, no team has scored more than one against them but they’ve also failed to score more than one in a game.
Manchester City were held to a surprise 1-1 draw at Aston Villa a fortnight ago and it’s either been feast or famine for the champions, if you consider famine as drawing games. All four of their wins have been by two or more goals. Both draws have come in away games with their only road win coming on the opening weekend.
Betting pick: Total goals – Under 2.5 (+142) 1 unit
Villa are the only team to concede fewer than two against Manchester City this season and the champions also had a midweek Champions League game to contend with so while I see them winning, I don’t see it being a rout like we’ve seen in other games.
Player to watch: Kevin de Bruyne
Erling Haaland has a ridiculous ten goals in six games so far, but de Bruyne is second on the team in shots (17), first in shot-creating actions (31) and already has four assists (and one goal) to his name. He scored four in this fixture last season and while I’m expecting a tight game, he could be the key to unlocking a resolute Wolves defense.
Bournemouth (+646) at Newcastle United (-206) – 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Newcastle United 1 – 0 Bournemouth
Newcastle have yet to win since the opening weekend but have only one defeat in their five games since, a contentious 2-1 loss at Liverpool. Three of the seven goals they have scored this season came against Manchester City, who are also responsible for half of the six goals Newcastle have conceded.
Bournemouth have picked up four points from their two games since sacking manager Scott Parker, including their come-from-behind 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest last time out. But this will be a much more formidable challenge and it’s difficult to see them scoring.
Betting pick: To win to nil – Newcastle United (+142) 1 unit
I’ve been banging on about Newcastle defensively for some time and will keep doing so. They have six clean sheets in their 12 home games this calendar year, with only Manchester City managing to score more than once in those games. They should have enough firepower to score and add to their clean sheet tally.
Player to watch: Kieran Trippier
I don’t feel like this will be an easy game for Newcastle and Bournemouth have had an extra week to work on new things since Scott Parker’s departure. Trippier being on set-pieces and in with a good chance of a clean sheet makes him a very solid play this week.
Leicester City (+609) at Tottenham (-196) – 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Tottenham 3 – 1 Leicester City
Despite sitting in third place, Tottenham haven’t really got going this season and suffered a 2-0 defeat at Sporting Lisbon in their midweek Champions League game. But they couldn’t have handpicked a better opponent than Leicester City this weekend.
Leicester comes into the game with five straight losses and rock-bottom in the league table. They have scored eight goals which is the most of any team in the bottom half of the table. But the 16 conceded is the second most in the league and only once have they managed to avoid conceding two or more in a game.
Betting pick: Handicap – Tottenham -1.5 (+132) 0.5 units AND To score & win – Harry Kane & Tottenham (+125) 0.5 units
I’m completely torn as to which of these plays I like the most so I’m hedging and going with both. Kane has scored 17 goals in 14 EPL games against Leicester, with six goals in his last six against them and a goal in each of their previous three matchups.
Leicester have conceded 11 goals in their three away games, including four at Arsenal and five at Brighton last time out. Although Tottenham haven’t looked too impressive so far this season, I don’t see any way they don’t cruise to a comfortable win here.
Player to watch: Harry Kane
As mentioned, Kane has a ridiculously good record against Leicester and already has five goals this season. All five goals have come in the last five EPL games and he’s scored in each of his last two home games. This could be the one week where Kane is a better play than Haaland.
Sunday, September 18th, 2022
Arsenal (-122) at Brentford (+350) – 7:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 2 Arsenal
Brentford’s impressive start to the season peaked a fortnight ago when they beat Leeds United 5-2 at home with Ivan Toney scoring a hat trick. Only Manchester City (20) have scored more than Brentford (15), ten of which have come in their three home games.
Arsenal’s 100% record ended a fortnight ago but they remain top of the table. Their 3-1 loss at Manchester United was the first time they had failed to score at least twice in a game and they’ve now gone three games without a clean sheet.
Betting pick: Both teams to score in 2nd half – Yes (+200) 0.5 units
Both teams have scored eight goals in the second half of their six games. Arsenal have scored in the second half of all six games while Brentford have done so in five of their six games. Brentford have also scored in the final ten minutes in four of their games, so expect late fireworks.
Player to watch: Ivan Toney
There’s an abundance of options in this game but I’m going with Toney given he’s in great form, fresh off of his first EPL hat trick. He has history with Arsenal, annoying them with a social media post following their 2-0 win last season, which Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta used as part of his pre-game team talk in the reverse fixture. Expect a bit of needle with him and the Arsenal defense.
West Ham United (+154) at Everton (+204) – 09:15 am ET
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 West Ham United
Everton enters the weekend on the back of four consecutive draws, the most recent being a 0-0 tie with local rivals Liverpool. They have just one home goal to their name so far and four in total but the six goals they have conceded is only bettered by three teams.
West Ham are yet to find their form of last season, with just one win and a draw from their six games. They have a trip to Denmark to contend with on Thursday in the Europa Conference and will still be smarting from two weeks ago when they were wrongly denied a late equalizer at Chelsea.
Betting pick: Draw no bet – Everton (+113) 1 unit
Although I fancy this game to end in a draw, West Ham’s midweek excursions could play a factor. I expect them to rotate their team between the two games but Everton’s newly formed defense is proving difficult to breach and I can see the home team nicking a narrow win so I’ll hedge and accept a void if it does end in a draw.
Player to watch: Demarai Gray
While Anthony Gordon is getting the plaudits, Gray ranks second behind him in shots (14) and shot-creating actions (18). He’s completed more passes than Gordon and is Everton’s primary corner taker, with set-pieces being one of the most likely routes to goal for the home side.
Moneyline: Aston Villa, Newcastle United and Tottenham (+366) 1 unit
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!