The SEC takes center stage in Week 10 as a Game of the Century and another top-10 matchup highlight a pivotal week of college football. However, there’s plenty of value left to find down the board as well when trying to find upsets that could shift the sport’s balance of power.
Last week, our turn to the sickos corner of the board yielded some impressive returns. The dead cat bounced higher than ever as Charlotte shocked Rice 56-23 behind five touchdowns from quarterback Chris Reynolds to deliver on a +550 line. If not for a late Jake Haener-led comeback, San Diego State would have added another +328. Northwestern and Old Dominion were duds, but Washington State came moments away from delivering if not for some breaks.
With only a handful of exceptions, the lines in Week 10 are sneaky. Out of the 53 games on Saturday, 17 feature a line of 3.5 or lower. That means the returns may be slightly lower than most weeks, but there will be upsets galore regardless. Here are five games that jump out to us in Week 10 for money line picks.
“Upset” is defined by odds, not rankings. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Lines may shift after publication.
When: Saturday, 11:30 a.m. ET | Where: Globe Life Field — Arlington, Texas
Featured Game | Army West Point Black Knights vs. Air Force Falcons
With a 5-3 record and 13-10 win over Navy, there’s no question that Air Force is a substantially better football team than Army. When the academies face off, though, that doesn’t matter. The only guarantees are low-scoring slogs that will come down to the last moment.
The last time these two teams met, the Falcons were fresh off taking Mountain West finalist San Diego State to the wire. Against the Black Knights, Air Force was held to 14 points and one touchdown in an overtime game. With so much value on the board, Army is a safe bet in what should be yet another coin flip academy ball game. Pick: Army (+228)
When: Saturday, 3 p.m. ET | Where: Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium — Norman, Oklahoma
Featured Game | Oklahoma Sooners vs. Baylor Bears
Oklahoma has been a much different team with QB Dillon Gabriel in the lineup and has won its last two games against Kansas and Iowa State by double digits. However, many of the same issues still remain from the Sooners’ three-game losing stream to start Big 12 play as they prepare for a difficult closing stretch.
Baylor is also 5-3, but the record hides what has still been one of the better teams in the Big 12. Losses have come to BYU in double overtime and at West Virginia without starting QB Blake Shapen. However, perhaps the biggest benefit in Baylor’s favor: Holding Jeff Lebby’s Ole Miss offense to just 2.6 yards per carry and seven points in last season’s Sugar Bowl. This Oklahoma offense is more limited. Pick: Baylor (+143)
When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET | Where: Sanford Stadium — Athens, Georgia
Featured Game | Georgia Bulldogs vs. Tennessee Volunteers
The Volunteers became the top overall seed in the initial CFP Rankings after picking up wins over No. 6 Alabama and No. 10 LSU. However, beating the defending national champions and AP No. 1 Georgia on the road presents an even more difficult challenge.
The Volunteers boast the most explosive offense in the nation, however, and a legitimate Heisman contender in QB Hendon Hooker. The Bulldogs have been inconsistent since wiping Oregon off the field in Week 1, including a near-loss against a bad Missouri team. However, the most important factor might come down to explosive plays. Tennessee leads the nation with 22 plays of more than 40 yards; Georgia has allowed seven such plays. If the Vols attack downfield, it will completely shift how UGA has to play this offense. Pick: Tennessee (+235)
When: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET | Where: Paulson Stadium — Statesboro, Georgia
Featured Game | Georgia Southern Eagles vs. South Alabama Jaguars
The Jaguars looked like legitimate Sun Belt favorites through the first half of the season, but they’ve fallen back to Earth in conference play. USA beat mediocre Louisiana and ULM squads by a combined 10 points before falling to Troy. To the contrary, Georgia Southern is finding its momentum after losing tight matchups against Coastal Carolina and Georgia State early in the year. The Eagles handed James Madison its first loss and edged out Old Dominion on the road. Pick: Georgia Southern (+150)
No. 6 Alabama at No. 10 LSU
When: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET | Where: Tiger Stadium — Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Featured Game | LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Betting against Alabama twice in one season feels like a fool’s errand, but this iteration of the Crimson Tide has simply showed too many flaws to be getting 4-to-1 value on the road. The Tide lost to Tennessee by three, but also narrowly pulled off victories against Texas and Texas A&M by a combined five points. Those two squads are a combined 8-8.
Since losing an embarrassing game against FSU in the opener, LSU has gotten right back on track and responded with dominant wins over Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Florida. QB Jayden Daniels doesn’t turn the ball over and is dynamic enough to cause Alabama’s pass rushers problems. The Tide are beatable, and Brian Kelly will get his first signature victory as a Tiger. Pick: LSU (+400)