Washington State vs. Oregon State Odds
We have a matchup between two teams sitting right in the middle of the Pac-12 standings on Saturday night in Corvallis.
Washington State has won eight consecutive meetings between these two foes, so the Reser Stadium crowd should bring plenty of noise in hopes of its team ending the skid.
The Cougars enter this matchup coming off of a loss on the road to USC. Wazzu was competitive in that contest, but the Trojans ultimately pulled away late.
Meanwhile, the Beavers pulled out a miracle victory in the final minutes on The Farm to shock Stanford. Oregon State trailed by 16 points halfway through the fourth quarter before pulling off the dramatic comeback.
With Oregon State currently sitting as a small favorite in this matchup, where does the betting value lie? Let’s discuss.
Head coach Jake Dickert announced earlier in the week that two of the Cougars’ most explosive offensive weapons, wide receiver Renard Bell and running back Nakia Watson, are both out for this game due to injury.
These are two significant losses for a Cougars offense that was already a little bit lacking when it comes to playmakers.
Incarnate Word transfer quarterback Cameron Ward has performed pretty well thus far in his move into the FBS ranks, but the junior needs to start taking better care of the football.
Ward is averaging just under 270 yards per game through the air, but has also already tossed seven interceptions. He has four Big Time Throws to seven Turnover Worthy Plays so far this season.
Washington State’s running game has struggled in conference play, and the Cougars will need to get a better push up front to take some pressure off of Ward Saturday night.
Washington State has been a very pleasant surprise on the defensive end this season.
The Cougars have held four of their six opponents to 17 points or fewer, and they kept Caleb Williams and the USC passing attack in check last week.
Stiffening in the red zone has been a major factor for WSU’s improved defense. The Cougars check in at 17th in Defensive Finishing Drives and they are also inside the top 40 in Havoc.
With some uncertainty at quarterback for Oregon State, getting pressure will be important for Wazzu.
The big question heading into this game for Oregon State is the availability of starting quarterback Chance Nolan. Nolan missed last week’s game against Stanford, and Ben Gulbranson started in his absence.
Gulbranson struggled at times, but he found a way to lead the Beavers down the field late to pull off the comeback.
Oregon State has had a really solid rushing attack all season, led by a veteran offensive line group and seasoned running back Deshaun Fenwick. Look for Jonathan Smith to lean on his rushing attack early against the Cougars and then try to set up the play-action pass as the game goes on.
If the Beavers can stay on schedule on first and second down, they can methodically move the ball down the field and put themselves in scoring situations against the Cougars’ defense.
It’s been a bit of an up-and-down year for Oregon State on the other side of the ball. This is a unit that performed admirably against USC and singlehandedly almost willed the Beavers to an upset in that one.
There have also been games — like the win against Fresno State — where the secondary has struggled and has been susceptible to some big plays through the air.
Ward can certainly sling it, but he’s also been sporadic at times, which should give the Beavers opportunities to take the ball away.
Oregon State should take away the run, so getting off the field in passing situations on third downs will be a big factor in how this game unfolds.
Washington State vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Washington State and Oregon State match up statistically:
Washington State Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Oregon State Offense vs. Washington State Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||46||111|
|Seconds per Play||25.4 (41)||29.0 (115)|
|Rush Rate||40.8% (126)||57.3% (39)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Washington State vs. Oregon State Betting Pick
Expect Oregon State to build off of last week’s heroics on Saturday night. Smith has this program trending in the right direction, and this is another chance to take a positive step toward back-to-back bowl appearances.
Regardless of who ends up starting under center for the Beavers, the offense should produce chunk yardage plays and put points on the board.
On the other side of the ball, Washington State will really miss both Bell and Watson’s playmaking. Oregon State’s secondary should hold up on the backend, and I’m sure you’ll see a concerted effort to keep contain on Ward.
I like the Beavers to find a way to win this game at home. I will be playing the Beavers at -3.5 and would play it to -4, but I would also support laying the juice on the moneyline — or as a moneyline parlay piece — at -170 or better.